The RURBANISE Reality

Uncovering the layers of risk through nationwide community dialogues

A shack in ASHAI community

“As a parent, I strategize. I can’t let my child go to school when it’s muddy. Mothers usually carry their children and put plastics on their shoes. If you don’t have a means to get those things (i.e. rain boots), you need to improvise to make sure your child arrives at school dry. If you don’t have any transport fare, you need to carry your child along the muddy road.”

This is more than just a story of a difficult commute; it’s a powerful look at the quiet, daily struggle of families forced to adapt to a changing climate on their own. These are the lived realities that drive Project RURBANISE.

In the face of escalating climate impacts, informal settlements often bear the heaviest burden. However, resilience cannot be a "one-size-fits-all" solution. RURBANISE is reimagining climate response by rejecting blanket interventions in favor of a more targeted approach. The project's key innovation lies in its methodology: a deep, nuanced understanding of how vulnerability is differentiated both across and within these communities. 

The Intersection of Science and Social Equity

To build a truly inclusive methodology, RURBANISE bridges two distinct but complementary fields:

• Climate Science:  Providing technical framework through governance interventions that improve the adaptive capacity of communities, and

• Intersectionality:  Explaining how overlapping drivers of discrimination and marginalization—such as gender, class, and ability—exacerbate differences in vulnerability.

This dual approach reveals that climate change is never experienced equally. While a community with modern sanitation systems may weather a flash flood with minimal effort, one lacking sufficient drainage infrastructure faces a crisis.

The “Everyday Experts”

The project’s goal is to combine the hard climate data with the lived experiences of the marginalized groups. By highlighting the routine contributions of residents, the project moves community members from the margins to the very center of decision-making.

To ground this theory in reality, the research team conducted intensive focus group discussions across five key regions: NCR, Iloilo, Davao, Cebu, and Bicol. These sessions brought together representatives from nine diverse communities.  

Defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as “the potential for adverse consequences for human or ecological systems, recognising the diversity of values and objectives associated with such systems,” risk serves as a critical lens in climate change.

As presented by the framework below, risk is the complex outcome of the collision of hazards with the community’s vulnerability and exposure, all of which are constantly being reshaped and modified by human responses. The team looked through the four propellers of risk; a clear picture emerged of how these communities survive and where they are being left behind.

The IPCC AR6 Risk Framework

Hazard

Hazard pertains to “the potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems and environmental resources.” (IPCC AR6) By quantifying the likelihood and magnitude of these events, communities can better prepare for the potential impact on infrastructure and livelihoods.

The APSHAI community in Rodriguez, Rizal, faces a complex profile of climate and industrial hazards. While the hilltop location mitigates the risk of fluvial flooding, it introduces significant geophysical threats, specifically landslides and isolation flooding that can leave the community stranded. These climate-driven hazards are compounded by a distinct industrial hazard: the proximity of ‘crushers,’ or heavy quarrying machinery, places residential structures and families in the direct path of potential physical impact.

The hilltop view of the APSHAI community in Rodriguez, Rizal

The Smart Tower community is located in an elevated area noting occurrences of strong winds after heavy rains. These tornadoes often damage their iron roofing and carry in scrap metals. As the community is situated within the premises of New Bilibid Prison (a maximum security prison) in Muntinlupa City, the residents are prohibited from bringing in traditional repair materials. They often resort to utilizing tarpaulins as alternative roofing. The risk is compounded by a human-induced hazard: the community's proximity to the Bureau of Corrections' firing range, which subjects residents to the persistent threat of ballistic trauma from stray bullets.

Exposure

Exposure is formally defined as “the presence of people; livelihoods; species or ecosystems; environmental functions, services, and resources; infrastructure; or economic, social, or cultural assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected.” (IPCC AR6) It is essentially a matter of location. It identifies the people, homes, livelihoods, and community spaces that sit directly in the path of a hazard, simply because of where they are built in relation to a river, a canal, or a shoreline.

In Valenzuela City, the community of ULHOA sits at a geographic disadvantage. Completely encircled by an industrial zone and tucked at the base of a long slope, the community has become the involuntary catch basin for the entire barangay. Because of their location, even a light rain is funneled directly into their streets, blocking access roads and threatening homes.

With flood depths reaching over 3 meters (highlighted in dark blue), ULHOA community serves as the involuntary catch basin for the barangay, where the natural flow of water turns access roads into impassable hazards.

In the rolling hills of Labo, Camarines Norte, the community of CASIDHAI faces a complex landscape of risk. Because of its varied terrain, exposure here is multifaceted: while the lower areas serve as a catch basin for floods, those on higher ground are directly in the path of strong typhoon winds. On the slopes, landslides are a hazard due to soil saturation and instability. It is a place where every asset—homes, livestock, and essential access roads—is positioned in the crosshairs of a different environmental threat, depending entirely on where they sit on the hill.

The hillside of CASIDHAI community

Vulnerability

Vulnerability refers to “the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected.” (IPCC AR6) It is driven by two key factors: susceptibility to harm and the deficits in capacity needed to cope or adapt. It is the measure of how predisposed a community is to being damaged by an event like a flood or a landslide.

In the low-lying community of SMASH in Mandaue City, Cebu, vulnerability is a result of both environmental and structural factors. Deforestation has stripped away the land’s natural defenses, leaving the area prone to flooding. This susceptibility to harm is compounded by the physical makeup of the neighborhood; because many houses are built from light materials, they are particularly fragile when faced with strong winds or accidental fires. It is also worth noting that a neglected drainage system and a lack of waste management infrastructure further aggravate its condition.

A critical and neglected drainage system choked with debris in SMASH community in Mandaue City, Cebu

In the coastal community of ASHAI in Talisay City, Cebu, vulnerability is defined by a precarious relationship with the sea. While the shoreline is their home, the structural reality tells a different story. The combination of substandard dike infrastructure and houses built from light materials creates a 'fragile frontline' against the waves. This vulnerability is deepened by their legal status; because many are located in designated 'danger zones,' homes are often demolished rather than reinforced, leaving the community in a constant state of uncertainty.

 The coastal community of ASHAI in Talisay City, Cebu living at the mercy of the tide

Nestled at the foot of Mount Apo, the community of HOA 1 in Kidapawan City, North Cotabato is structurally defined by its 'kalakat' or woven wood housing. While residents claim that their usage of these light materials allow their homes to 'sway' and move with the region’s frequent earthquakes, this architectural choice does not keep them free from fear and panic during unpredictable tremors. This structural vulnerability is compounded by a lack of institutional support: without improved drainage and waste disposal, the community’s lower-lying homes are left defenseless against the rain.

Response

The integration of responses represents the most critical evolution in the IPCC AR6 framework. It recognizes human agency—specifically mitigation and adaptation—as internal drivers that actively shape the risk profile. By treating these actions as a core "blade" of the climate risk propeller, the framework illustrates that policy effectiveness and socio-economic transitions are not merely external reactions, but are fundamental to determining whether a system moves toward resilience or increased fragility.

The KABALAKA community in Iloilo City, particularly those in low-lying areas, experienced severe flooding during Typhoon Frank when the Batiano River overflowed. In response, the community constructed a concrete catch basin to mitigate future risks. However, the persistent threat of high tides coupled with heavy rainfall now requires a permanent drainage system—a project that necessitates both integrated city-level planning and formal financial support.

In Davao City, the residents of Nalumville demonstrate that adaptation is often built on social capital. Their close-knit community ties serve as a vital coping strategy, particularly during the onset of floods and wind surges. The community takes immense pride in the spirit of Bayanihan, where collective action ensures that no neighbor is left behind. Whether it’s clearing debris or providing immediate relief, this culture of mutual support transforms individual residents into a unified frontline against environmental stress.

The Layers of Risk

As these stories from across the Philippines show, risk is not a flat line—it is a series of overlapping layers. This is where intersectionality becomes a vital tool for Project RURBANISE.

Considering the community like Smart Tower in Muntinlupa, it has to be seen beyond "strong winds" (exposure). It presents how legal status (living in the periphery of a maximum security prison) intersects with class (the inability to avail repair materials) to create a specific kind of hardship.

In Kidapawan, the traditional knowledge (using kalakat for earthquakes) intersects with gender and mental health, as mothers navigate the intense psychological toll of "fear and panic" while trying to keep their households calm.

Differential vulnerability shows that:

• A "flood" is not the same for everyone: A physically abled man may be able to wade through the floodwaters in Valenzuela, but as our opening story shows, a mother must carry her child, manage the household's limited resources (like plastic for shoes), and sacrifice her own physical comfort to ensure her child’s education.

• Tenure can be a climate issue: In Talisay, the "danger zone" designation doesn't just mean they are close to the sea; it means they are systematically denied the right to build permanent, safe structures. Their socio-economic status dictates their lack of capacity to respond to hazards.

  
  

The mother in the mud, the builder of the kalakat house, and the community leader in Iloilo are not just victims of a changing climate—they are Everyday Experts. They have been "strategizing" long before formal climate policies reached their households.

Project RURBANISE recognizes that to build a resilient future, we must stop designing for these communities and start designing with them. By bridging the gap between climate science and the lived experience of intersectional struggle, we move away from "one-size-fits-all" solutions.

True resilience is more than a concrete dike or a drainage pipe. It is the recognition of a mother’s improvisation, the preservation of a family, and the commitment to ensure that no community—regardless of their location, gender, or status—is left to navigate the rising tide alone.

Because in the end, resilience should be a shared commitment, not a lonely struggle.

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Through long-term commitments and partnerships worldwide, and needs-driven, action-focused research, CLARE links up short-and long-term issues, enabling long-term, sustainable, and fair economic and social development in a changing climate whilst supporting early action to reduce impacts of climate variability whilst providing a better understanding of the risks associated with climate.

References: 

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IPCC, 2023: Annex I: Glossary [Reisinger, A., D. Cammarano, A. Fischlin, J.S. Fuglestvedt, G. Hansen, Y. Jung, C. Ludden, V. Masson-Delmotte, R. Matthews, J.B.K Mintenbeck, D.J. Orendain, A. Pirani, E. Poloczanskaa, and J. Romero (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 119-130, doi: 10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647.002. 

Reisinger, A. et. al.  (4 Sept 2020). The concept of risk in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report: a summary of cross-Working Group discussions: Guidance for IPCC authors. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Retrieved from https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2021/01/The-concept-of-risk-in-the-IPCC-Sixth-Assessment-Report.pdf.

Simpson, N.P., Orr, S.A., Sabour, S., Clarke, J., Ishizawa, M., Feener, M., Ballard, C., Mascarenhas, P.V., Pinho, P., Bosson, J.B., Morrison, T., Zvobogo, L. ICSM CHC White Paper II: Impacts, vulnerability, and understanding risks of climate change for culture and heritage: Contribution of Impacts Group II to the International Co-Sponsored Meeting on Culture, Heritage and Climate Change. Charenton-le-Pont & Paris, France: ICOMOS & ICSM CHC, 2022